Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Engineering
• Energy Policy

Background:

• Global efforts aim to stabilize mean temperature by reducing net anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to near zero by 2050.
• Continued expansion of fossil-fuel energy infrastructure locks in future CO2 emissions, challenging climate targets.
• Estimating committed emissions from existing and planned infrastructure is vital for assessing the feasibility of climate goals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions from existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018.
• To analyze the sensitivity of these emissions to operating lifetimes and schedules.
• To evaluate the economic implications and potential for early retirement of CO2-emitting infrastructure.

Main Methods:

• Utilized detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure from 2018.
• Modeled cumulative CO2 emissions based on historical operations, assumed lifetimes, and utilization rates.
• Calculated committed emissions from both existing and proposed (planned, permitted, under construction) power plants.

Main Results:

• Existing infrastructure is estimated to emit 658 gigatonnes of CO2, with over half from the electricity sector.
• China, the USA, and the EU account for approximately 41%, 9%, and 7% of these emissions, respectively.
• Existing and proposed infrastructure (846 gigatonnes CO2) exceeds the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Conclusions:

• Little to no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned to meet Paris Agreement goals.
• Existing infrastructure may require early retirement or retrofitting with carbon capture technology.
• Cost-effective premature retirements are likely in the electricity and industry sectors, contingent on affordable non-emitting alternatives.