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Survival Benefit of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Mounika Kanneganti1, Nadim Mahmud2, David E Kaplan2,3
1Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Insights
Liver transplantation (LT) offers survival benefits for liver cancer (HCC) but the incremental gain over resection or ablation is small long-term. Careful patient selection for LT is crucial for this scarce resource.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Surgical Oncology
- Transplant Medicine
Background:
- Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) in the US.
- While LT offers the highest long-term survival, data comparing its incremental benefit against resection or ablation are limited due to patient selection biases.
- Understanding the comparative survival outcomes is essential for optimizing treatment strategies for HCC.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the survival benefit of liver transplantation (LT) versus resection or ablation in patients with cirrhosis and HCC.
- To quantify the incremental survival advantage of LT over other curative treatments in a real-world veteran population.
- To inform patient selection for LT to maximize the utility of this scarce resource.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 2129 veterans aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score <15) from 2008-2016.
- Analysis included patients who received LT, resection, or ablation.
- Multivariable models and sensitivity analyses were used to assess survival outcomes and account for potential biases.
Main Results:
- Patients undergoing resection or ablation had significantly higher hazards of death compared to LT.
- The absolute incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was modest, ranging from 1.04-1.24 years at 5-year follow-up.
- Sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings, including in a cohort with early/intermediate stage HCC.
Conclusions:
- Liver transplantation (LT) is associated with significantly improved survival compared to resection and ablation for HCC.
- However, the absolute incremental survival benefit of LT is small over a 5-year period.
- Optimizing patient selection for LT is critical to effectively utilize this limited and valuable resource.
Background:
In the United States, nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) are performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although overall long-term survival is highest with LT, there are limited data on the incremental survival benefit of LT versus other curative options (resection or ablation) due to shunting of patients towards LT.
Methods:
We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC in the Veterans Health Administration (population enriched with 3 curative treatments) from 2008 to 2016. The cohort was restricted to patients who received LT, resection, or ablation and a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score <15 at HCC diagnosis.
Results:
Among 2129 veterans in the analytic cohort, 658 (26.7%) received LT, 244 (11.5%) underwent resection, and 1317 (61.59%) received ablation. In multivariable models, patients who underwent resection (hazard ratio: 5.42; 95% confidence interval: 4.15-7.08) or ablation (hazard ratio: 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 4.51-6.71) had significantly increased hazards of death. However, in absolute terms, the incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was small, between 0.02 and 0.03 years at 1 year, 0.32-0.42 years at 3 years, and 1.04-1.24 years at 5 years follow-up. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for possible immortal time bias, as well as a cohort restricted to early/intermediate stage HCC.
Conclusions:
Although LT is associated with significantly increased survival compared to resection and ablation, the absolute incremental survival benefit is small over a 5-year time horizon. Optimal selection of patients for LT is critical for maximizing utilization of a scarce resource.
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