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State and parameter estimation for a class of schistosomiasis models.

Derdei M Bichara1, Aboudramane Guiro2, Abderrahman Iggidr3

  • 1Department of Mathematics, California State University, Fullerton, CA 92831, USA.

Mathematical Biosciences
|July 10, 2019
PubMed
Summary

We developed a new framework to estimate schistosomiasis transmission. This method helps pinpoint where to target interventions like molluscicides and mass drug administration for effective disease control.

Keywords:
Control strategiesMacDonald’s modelObserverParameter estimationSchistosomiasisState estimation

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Schistosomiasis remains a significant global health concern, necessitating accurate transmission parameter estimation.
  • Control strategies rely on understanding snail-human transmission dynamics and snail infection proportions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a general framework for estimating schistosomiasis transmission parameters and infected snail proportions.
  • To provide tools for optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies through accurate data-driven insights.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a homogeneous version of the MacDonald's model for schistosomiasis dynamics.
  • Designed an auxiliary dynamical system (observer) for exponential convergence to schistosomiasis model solutions.
  • Extended the framework to a heterogeneous model incorporating multiple human groups and freshwater habitats.

Main Results:

  • Successfully derived estimations for the snail-human transmission rate.
  • Developed a method to estimate the proportion of infected snails in each habitat using human worm burden data.
  • The framework enables mapping of infection hotspots for targeted interventions.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework offers a robust approach to estimating key schistosomiasis transmission parameters.
  • This method provides crucial data for implementing effective, geographically targeted control strategies.
  • The findings support enhanced efforts in molluscicide application and mass drug administration for schistosomiasis elimination.