Forensic intelligence on illicit markets: The example of watch counterfeiting

Counterfeit luxury fashion goods have rarely been the subject of scientific studies. Very little is known about the mechanisms of this illicit market despite the apparent prevalence and their adverse consequences. Counterfeit watches remain one of the preferred targets in the luxury goods segment. The study of marks or traces in a forensic intelligence perspective can contribute to an improved understanding of the phenomenon. The aim of our research was to highlight different types of links that can be drawn between specimens of counterfeit watches, to carry out a thorough study of the information conveyed by the revealed links, to study their complementarity and to get an understanding of the intelligence that can be produced from these pieces of information. Thirty-five counterfeit watches of a commonly counterfeit watch brand including seven popular models were studied in this research. Chemical and physical links were found that corroborated existing knowledge and also revealed new connections between different seizures or specimens. The comparison of chemical and physical features combined with spatiotemporal information on the seized watches enabled us to produce intelligence disclosing possible aspects of the structure and the organisation of production and distribution channels. We were able to reveal or confirm links between watches that were previously unknown or uncertain and demonstrated the interconnection of all watches on a chemical and/or physical level, suggesting an overhead organised network with substructures. Despite the limited set of specimens that was considered, this study illustrates that forensic intelligence on this illicit market can be used to support consistent decision-making from all the key-players involved in the anti-counterfeiting process.