Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score is a strong predictor of survival in acute-on-chronic liver failure

The mortality of patients with an exacer-bation of decompensated liver cirrhosis is high even if treated in the intensive care unit (ICU), and the criteria for referral to ICU are not well defined. The objective of this study was to identify variables associated with mortality.

A single-centre retrospective cohort analysis was conducted in a university-affiliated ICU. A total of 53 adult patients with decompensated alcoholic liver cirrhosis were admitted from January 2012 to June 2015. Variables associated with survival were identified using Cox regression analysis.

The ten-day, 30-day, 90-day, and one-year mortality were 36%, 57%, 66%, and 80%, respectively. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that mortality was significantly associated with a low oxygen saturation, low diastolic blood pressure, terlipressin treatment, high Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II score, high Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score, high Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and high Model For End-Stage Liver Disease score, but only a high SOFA score and old age were independently associated with increased mortality. These two variables were combined to the Age-SOFA index to predict the probability of surviving a given period.

The mortality was high in these severely ill patients, even when they received optimum supportive therapy in the ICU. The finding that the SOFA score and age best predicted mortality shows that the increased mortality was caused mainly by insufficiency of organs other than the liver.

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