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Preference reversals during risk elicitation.

Petko Kusev1, Paul van Schaik2, Rose Martin1

  • 1Department of Management, Huddersfield Business School, The University of Huddersfield.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Human decision-making preferences are not stable and change based on the decision context. Our study shows risk preferences reverse depending on how certainty options are spaced in tasks.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Theory

Background:

  • Normative and descriptive theories of human behavior assume stable decision-making preferences.
  • Utility theory and prospect theory rely on consistent risk preference patterns.
  • This research challenges the assumption of stable preferences in decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether human preferences are stable across different decision-making contexts.
  • To examine the impact of certainty spacing in risk elicitation tasks on preference stability.
  • To determine if prospect theory's predictions are influenced by the method of risk elicitation.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of decision-making under two certainty equivalent (CE) task conditions: logarithmically spaced certainty and linearly spaced certainty.
  • Elicitation of risk preferences using varying probability ranges (low and high).
  • Assessment of preference reversals based on the spacing of sure options.

Main Results:

  • Decision makers exhibited reversed risk preferences between logarithmically and linearly spaced certainty tasks.
  • The influence of probability range on preferences, as predicted by prospect theory, was found to be an artifact of logarithmically spaced options.
  • When sure options were linearly spaced, probability range did not affect risk preferences, indicating preference instability.

Conclusions:

  • Human risk preferences are not stable and are significantly influenced by the decision context, specifically the spacing of certainty options.
  • The findings suggest that the risk elicitation method can shape or even create the effects predicted by descriptive decision-making theories like prospect theory.
  • Further research is needed to understand how elicitation methods impact the validity and predictions of decision theory models.