Optimistic metacognitive judgments predict poor performance in relatively complex visual tasks

In some cases, people overestimate how much they can see. This can produce a metacognitive blind spot that may lead participants to devote fewer cognitive resources than a visual task demands. However, little research has tested whether individuals who are particularly optimistic about their visual capabilities are susceptible to poor visual performance. We tested whether optimistic metacognitive judgments would predict poor performance in a visual task, especially when it placed a large attentional load on the participant, and when it required balancing between multiple sources of information. We tested participants in a simplified battle command simulation in which they were asked to detect visual changes. Participants who predicted spatially expansive visual attention performance performed more poorly in the change detection task when the task required tracking larger numbers of aircraft, and when it included a secondary change-list display.