Open-minded imitation can achieve near-optimal vaccination coverage

Area of Science:

• Mathematical modeling
• Epidemiology
• Behavioral economics

Background:

• Game theory predicts suboptimal voluntary vaccination coverage due to self-interest.
• Imitation strategies often lead to even lower vaccination rates than the Nash equilibrium.
• Existing models rely on Fermi functions for strategy switching probabilities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of a generalized switching probability on vaccination coverage.
• To introduce and analyze the concept of
• open-mindedness
• in vaccination decision-making.
• To determine if increased open-mindedness can improve societal vaccination levels.

Main Methods:

• Developed a game-theoretic model with a generalized Fermi function incorporating an
• open-mindedness
• parameter (denoted as
• beta
• ).
• Performed mathematical analysis of the model's dynamics and equilibria.
• Conducted numerical simulations to validate analytical findings.

Main Results:

• The generalized switching probability, reflecting
• open-mindedness
• , significantly alters vaccination dynamics.
• Sufficiently high levels of
• open-mindedness
• drive equilibrium vaccination coverage above the Nash equilibrium.
• Achieved vaccination coverage arbitrarily close to the societal optimum with high
• open-mindedness
• levels.

Conclusions:

• The parameter
• beta
• , representing
• open-mindedness
• , is crucial for understanding voluntary vaccination.
• Incorporating psychological realism via generalized switching probabilities can lead to more effective public health strategies.
• Promoting
• open-mindedness
• could be a viable strategy to increase vaccination coverage towards optimal levels.