Arthroplasty Care Redesign Impacts the Predictive Accuracy of the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool

The Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool (RAPT) is used to predict patient discharge disposition after total joint arthroplasty. Following a comprehensive, multidisciplinary redesign, our institution noticed a trend toward home discharge in patients with RAPT scores that historically predicted discharge to acute care facilities, presenting an opportunity to redefine the predictive ranges for RAPT.

Retrospectively collected data were analyzed from a single institution in patients undergoing elective primary total joint arthroplasty from January 2016 to April 2017. Predictive accuracy (PA) was calculated for each RAPT score (1-12), RAPT score risk ranges (low, intermediate, and high), as well as overall. Other factors evaluated included patient-reported discharge expectation, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists scores as related to discharge disposition and the PA of RAPT.

Overall PA of RAPT was 88% (n = 1024 patients). Patients were high risk for acute care facility with a RAPT score of 1 to 3 (PA ≥ 83%), intermediate risk 4 to 7 (PA, 52%-79%), and low risk 8 to 12 (PA ≥ 89%). In multivariable analysis, RAPT score and patient-reported discharge expectation had the strongest correlation with actual discharge disposition.

Our multidisciplinary redesign has impacted the PA of RAPT. The original predictive ranges should be modified to reflect the increasing proportion of patients being discharged home following elective arthroplasty procedures. We have identified patient-expected discharge destination as a powerful modulator of the RAPT score and suggest that it be taken into consideration for discharge planning.