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Statistical Approach for Assessing the Stockholm Convention's Effectiveness: Great Lakes Atmospheric Data.

Ronald A Hites1

  • 1O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs , Indiana University , Bloomington , Indiana 47405 , United States.

Environmental Science & Technology
|July 23, 2019
PubMed
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A new statistical method assesses the Stockholm Convention's effectiveness by analyzing pollutant concentration changes over time. While some pollutants show non-compliant trends, polychlorinated biphenyls exhibit Stockholm Convention-like behavior.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Environmental Science
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • The Stockholm Convention (SC) aims to reduce global pollutant concentrations.
  • Assessing the SC's effectiveness requires robust statistical methods to analyze environmental monitoring data.
  • Observed pollutant trends may not always align with expected SC-driven decreases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a statistical strategy for evaluating the effectiveness of the Stockholm Convention.
  • To investigate time-series pollutant concentration data to determine changes in rates of decline or increase.
  • To compare pollutant concentration trends at different time points to assess regulatory impacts.

Main Methods:

  • A second-order regression model was developed: ln(Ct) = a0 + a1*t + a2*t^2, to analyze pollutant concentration (Ct) over time (t).

Related Experiment Videos

  • The rate of change (k(t) = a1 + 2*a2*t) was calculated, allowing for statistical comparison of concentration change rates.
  • Atmospheric vapor and particle phase concentrations of organic pollutants from six North American Great Lakes sites (since 1992) were analyzed, with corrections for population, seasonality, and sampling frequency.

    • Main Results:

    • Generally, vapor phase chlorinated pesticide loss rates slowed by approximately 50% between 1995 and 2015, deviating from expected SC-like behavior.
    • Endosulfan concentrations, initially increasing, showed decreasing trends by 2015, attributed to reduced insecticide use in the U.S.
    • Vapor phase polychlorinated biphenyl loss rates accelerated between 1995 and 2015, consistent with Stockholm Convention objectives.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed statistical method provides a rigorous approach to assess the effectiveness of environmental regulations like the Stockholm Convention.
    • Observed trends indicate varied responses to the SC, with some pollutants showing non-compliance and others demonstrating expected reductions.
    • The study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring and advanced statistical analysis to understand complex environmental pollutant dynamics.