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Published on: June 10, 2025
Visit-to-Visit B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Variability during the Previous Year Has Independent Prognostic Value in
Nobuyuki Kagiyama1,2, Takuya Yuri3, Akihiro Hayashida3
1Department of Cardiology, The Sakakibara Heart Institute of Okayama, Okayama, Japan, kgnb_27_hot@yahoo.co.jp.
Insights
Visit-to-visit B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) variability in stable chronic heart failure (CHF) patients predicts adverse outcomes. High BNP variability, independent of BNP levels, indicates a higher risk of death or hospitalization.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomarker Research
- Prognostic Medicine
Background:
- Chronic heart failure (CHF) patients exhibit significant visit-to-visit (V2V) B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) variability, even when clinically stable.
- The prognostic implications of this V2V-BNP variability in stable CHF remain largely uninvestigated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the prognostic significance of V2V-BNP variability in stable CHF patients.
- To determine if V2V-BNP variability predicts adverse outcomes independently of the absolute BNP level.
Main Methods:
- Studied 278 stable CHF outpatients, measuring V2V-BNP variability as the coefficient of variance over one year.
- Primary endpoint included all-cause death and heart failure rehospitalization over a median follow-up of 3.2 years.
Main Results:
- Higher V2V-BNP variability (≥25.7%) was significantly associated with increased event rates (p=0.001).
- This association remained independent of CHF severity, BNP levels, and MAGGIC risk scores in multivariable analyses.
- Increased event risk was observed with rising V2V-BNP variability, particularly up to approximately 30%.
Conclusions:
- V2V-BNP variability is a significant independent predictor of worse long-term outcomes in stable CHF.
- BNP variability provides prognostic information beyond the baseline BNP level in chronic heart failure management.
Background:
There is wide variability of visit-to-visit (V2V) B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), even when they are stable. The prognostic significance of V2V-BNP variability has not been investigated. We aimed to test whether V2V-BNP variability during the stable period of CHF has prognostic value regardless of BNP level.
Methods:
In 278 stable outpatients (75 ± 10 years, 65% male) with CHF, we studied V2V-BNP variability, which was defined as the coefficient of variance of BNP values measured during 1 year before enrollment. All-cause death and rehospitalization due to HF were considered the primary endpoint.
Results:
The median V2V-BNP variability was 25.7% (IQR: 19.2-34.4%). During the follow-up period (median 3.2 years), 100 patients reached the endpoint and those with high V2V-BNP variability (≥25.7%) had a significantly higher rate of events (p = 0.001). CHF severity in terms of BNP level and MAGGIC risk score was not significantly different between those with high and low V2V-BNP variability. Multivariable analysis showed that high V2V-BNP variability was independently associated with increased event rates even after adjustment for other known prognostic predictors, including BNP (hazard ratio 1.90, p = 0.003), or for MAGGIC risk score and BNP (hazard ratio 1.72, p = 0.010). The hazard for the outcome consistently increased as V2V-BNP variability increased, with a marked increase up to about 30%.
Conclusions:
Even in the stable phase of CHF, V2V-BNP variability was associated with worse long-term outcomes, independent of BNP level.
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