Prediction of the gastric cancer mortality in 2000 in Japan

Gastric cancer mortality in Japan in the year 2000 has been predicted from sex- and age-specific incidences and mortality trends and patient cure rates. The difference between the log-linear decrease in incidence and the log-quadratic decrease in mortality was considered to be the result of early diagnosis and treatment. Even on the assumption that 90% of patients could be cured in 2000, the number of deaths was estimated to be about 10,000. The decreasing incidence of cases brought about by birth cohort effects may contribute towards lowering the number of patients. The importance of health education in lowering the incidence of gastric cancer, by teaching people to keep up a sound life style, is discussed.