Accuracy of Postoperative Risk Scores for Survival Prediction in Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted...

In this study, we sought to determine the accuracy of several critical care risk scores for predicting survival of Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) Profile 1 patients after continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) placement. We retrospectively analyzed the records of 605 patients who underwent CF-LVAD implantation between 2003 and 2016. We calculated the preoperative HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) and preoperative Right Ventricular Failure Risk Score (RVFRS) and the following risk scores for postoperative days 1-5: HMRS, RVFRS, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-eXcluding International Normalized Ratio, Post Cardiac Surgery (POCAS) risk score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) risk score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III. The preoperative scores and the postoperative day 1, 5-day mean, and 5-day maximum scores were entered into a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to examine accuracy for predicting 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year survival. The mean POCAS score was the best predictor of 30-day and 90-day survival (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.869 and 0.816). The postoperative mean RVFRS was the best predictor of 1-year survival (AUC = 0.7908). The postoperative maximum and mean RVFRS and HMRS were more accurate than the preoperative scores. Both of these risk score measurements of acuity in the postoperative intensive care unit setting help predict early mortality after LVAD implantation.