Population attributable risk of risk factors for type 2 diabetes; Bayesian methods

Demonstrating the risk factors of diabetes can help to plan for prevention of this disease. This study aimed at quantification of the impact of physical activity, hypertension, general obesity, central obesity, high cholesterol, HDL, LDL, triglyceride, smoking, hookah, drug use, alcohol consumption on the incidence of type 2 diabetes at a population level in Yazd, Iran. And this study calculated population attributable risk (PAR) of them.

For this study, data from the first phase of the cohort study of chronic diseases in the adults of Yazd city were used, which began in 2016. Data was recorded through a cohort trained team. To calculate PAR and its the Bayesian confidence interval were performed using software R (version 3.4.3).

Of the 9967 subjects studied, age ≥30, 14.67% (n = 1432) has type 2 diabetes. The most common risk factors for diabetes were Inadequate physical activity and central obesity (WHR). The PAR for Inadequate physical activity of diabetes in women was 17.92%, in men 18.53, And PAR for WHR in women was 57.62%, in men 43.03.

In this study, age was the strongest determinant of diabetes. And then type 2 diabetes is mainly attributable to WHR, significantly more so in women than men. Therefore, central obesity probably should be considered as a major strategy for reducing incidence of type 2 diabetes.