Spring onion seed demand forecasting using a hybrid Holt-Winters and support vector machine model

Demand for spring onion seeds is variable and maintaining its supply is crucial to the success of seed companies. Spring onion seed demand forecasting, which can help reduce the high operational costs increased by long-period propagation and complex logistics, has not previously been investigated yet. This paper provides a novel perspective on spring onion seed demand forecasting and proposes a hybrid Holt-Winters and support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model. The model uses dynamic factors, including historical seed sales, seed inventory, spring onion crop market price and weather data, as inputs to forecast spring onion seed demand. Forecasting error, i.e. the difference between actual and forecasted demand, is assessed. Two advanced machine learning models are trained on the same dataset as benchmark models. Numerical experiments using actual commercial sales data for three spring onion seed varieties show the proposed hybrid model outperformed the statistical-based models for all three forecasting errors. Seed inventory, spring onion crop market price and historical seed sales are the most important dynamic factors, among which seed inventory has short-term influence while other two have mid-term influence on seed demand forecasting. The absolute minimum temperature is the only factor having long-term influence. This study provides a promising spring onion seed demand forecasting model that helps understand the relationships between seed demand and other dynamic factors and the model could potentially be applied to demand forecasting of other crop seeds to reduce total operational costs.