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Understanding and predicting frost-induced tropical tree mortality patterns.

Adrián Bojórquez1, Juan C Álvarez-Yépiz2, Alberto Búrquez1

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Forest Science

Background:

  • Extreme climatic events, such as cold waves, are increasing globally, leading to widespread tree mortality.
  • Understanding local factors influencing tree mortality is crucial for predicting forest ecosystem responses, especially in complex tropical landscapes.
  • Tropical dry forests face unique challenges due to their sensitivity to climatic shifts and varied successional stages.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of topography and forest successional type on climate-induced tree mortality patterns in Neotropical dry forests.
  • To assess the role of elevation and forest type in modulating frost-induced tree mortality during an extreme cold event.
  • To provide insights into predicting tree mortality in diverse tropical forest ecosystems.

Main Methods:

  • Observational study across 454 sites in mature and secondary tropical dry forests in northwestern Mexico.
  • Detailed examination of 6,981 woody plants across 48 one-hectare plots to quantify frost-induced tree mortality.
  • Statistical analysis to determine the effects of elevation, forest type, and their interactions on tree mortality occurrence and severity.

Main Results:

  • Elevation was the primary factor influencing frost-induced tree mortality, with lower elevations experiencing higher mortality probabilities.
  • Mature forests exhibited twice the probability of frost-induced tree mortality compared to secondary forests, but with lower severity.
  • Cold air mass movement downhill during advective frosts explained higher mortality in lowland areas.

Conclusions:

  • Topography, particularly elevation, plays a critical role in modulating frost impacts on tropical dry forests.
  • Forest successional type influences both the probability and severity of climate-driven tree mortality, highlighting the need for nuanced predictions.
  • Extreme frost events can alter forest dynamics, potentially shifting the range margins of Neotropical dry forests and impacting ecosystem services.