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Do Work-Related Lost-Time Injuries Sustained Early in Employment Predict Multiple Lost-Time Injuries Throughout
Xuguang Grant Tao1, Nimisha Kalia, Robert A Lavin
1Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr Tao and Dr Kalia); Department of Neurology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr Lavin); Insurance and Information Technology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland (Minor); AVP of Strategic Risk and Strategy Management, Louisiana Workers' Compensation Corporation, Instructor in Medicine, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (Yuspeh); Dell Medical School, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas; Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr Leung and Dr Bernacki); Department of Population Health, Dell Medical School, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas (Dr Tsourmas).
Objective:
The aim of this study was to identify a simple surrogate to predict the future risk of multiple lost-time injuries.
Method:
Employees of an academic medical center who sustained 5,906 injuries were followed from 1994 to 2017 or 1,046,218 person years.
Results:
The odds ratio of having three or more lost-time injuries during their entire duration of employment was 2.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.60 to 2.79) for employees having their first lost-time injury within the first 6 months of employment versus those injured after that, controlling for demographics and employment duration. For each increasing year before the first lost-time injury, the probability of having three or more lost-time injuries decreased by 13%.
Conclusions:
Employment duration before the first lost-time injury may be used to predict future lost-time injuries without detailed information of underlying risk factors.
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