Progressive deterioration of pollination service detected in a 17-year study vanishes in a 26-year study

Widespread reports of declining populations of pollinators have raised concerns that plant populations may be incurring increasing shortfalls in pollination, but few studies have measured pollination deficits over enough seasons to detect such changes. I have conducted pollen-supplementation experiments in a wild population of the glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum, Liliaceae) from 1993 to 2018. Pollination deficits were estimated by comparing the fruit set of hand-pollinated, single-flowered plants to that of open-pollinated controls. For a subset of years, seed set data were also available. A previous publication reported a significant deterioration of pollination in this population from 1993 to 2009, and suggested phenological dislocation as a possible cause. That deterioration is no longer evident in the longer-term data set. Very long time series may be necessary to detect temporal trends in pollination service. This population consistently experiences stronger pollination deficits before its flowering peak than after. This heterogeneity suggests caution in characterizing a population as pollination-limited or not, even within a single season.