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An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction

Andrew E Snyder-Beattie1, Toby Ord2, Michael B Bonsall3

  • 1University of Oxford, Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK. andrew.snyder-beattie@zoo.ox.ac.uk.

Scientific Reports
|August 1, 2019
PubMed
Summary

The annual probability of human extinction from natural causes is very low, likely less than 1 in 87,000. This estimate considers known and unknown natural risks, excluding human-caused threats.

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