Estimating non-native plant richness with a species-accumulation model along roads

Monitoring non-native plant richness is important for biodiversity conservation and scientific research. The species-area model (SA model) has been used frequently to estimate the total species richness within a region. However, the conventional SA model may not provide robust estimations of non-native plant richness because the ecological processes associated with the accumulation of exotic and native plants may differ. Because roads strongly dictate the distributions of exotic plants, we propose a species-accumulation model along roads (SR model), rather than an SA model, to estimate the non-native plant richness within a region. Using 270 simulated data sets, we compared the differences in performance between the SR and SA models. A decision tree based on prediction accuracy was created to guide model application, which was validated using field data from 3 national nature reserves in 3 different provinces in China. The SR model significantly outperformed the SA model when non-native species were restricted to the roadsides and the proportion of uncommon exotic species was small. More importantly, the SR model accurately estimated the non-native plant richness in all field sites with an error of <1 species per site. We believe our new model meets the practical need to efficiently and robustly estimate non-native plant richness, which may facilitate effective biodiversity conservations and promote research on non-native plant invasion and vegetation dynamics.