NBA team home advantage: Identifying key factors using an artificial neural network

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Data Analytics
• Basketball Performance Analysis

Background:

• Home advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in sports, but its determinants and temporal changes are not fully understood.
• Previous research has explored factors like crowd behavior, location, and team quality, with mixed results.
• The evolution of game strategies, such as increased three-point shooting, may influence the dynamics of home advantage over time.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the key determinants of a National Basketball Association (NBA) team's home advantage.
• To investigate whether factors beyond team performance, such as attendance, altitude, and market size, influence home advantage.
• To explain the observed decline in home advantage in the NBA over recent decades.

Main Methods:

• Collected season performance statistics for all NBA teams across 32 seasons (1983-84 to 2017-18).
• Acquired data on potential influencing factors: stadium attendance, altitude, and team market size.
• Utilized an artificial neural network to diagnose home advantage based solely on team performance statistics.

Main Results:

• Team performance statistics alone were sufficient to diagnose a team's home advantage, outperforming models that included attendance, altitude, and market size.
• The style of play emerged as a critical factor; teams favoring two-point and free-throw shots exhibited a greater home advantage.
• The increasing prevalence of three-point shooting in recent NBA seasons correlates with the observed gradual decline in overall home advantage.

Conclusions:

• A team's strategic approach to scoring, particularly the emphasis on two-point and free-throw attempts, is a primary driver of home advantage.
• External factors like crowd size, stadium location, or market economics do not significantly enhance the prediction of home advantage.
• The shift in NBA game strategy towards three-point shooting provides a partial explanation for the long-term trend of diminishing home advantage.