Spatial and temporal rainfall changes in Egypt.

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Hydrology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Human-induced climate change has globally altered extreme weather events, including storms and floods.
• Egypt has recently experienced extreme rainfall events, leading to severe flash floods in some areas.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the variability of rainfall characteristics in Egypt.
• To analyze temporal trends in precipitation using historical data.
• To assess the likelihood and potential impacts of these trends.

Main Methods:

• Statistical analysis of historical rainfall records from 31 stations in Egypt.
• Application of parametric (Pearson) and non-parametric (Mann-Kendall, Spearman) tests.
• Examination of annual and seasonal precipitation indices to detect trends.

Main Results:

• Significant trends were detected in annual precipitation indices, including maximum precipitation (29% of stations), total precipitation (19%), and simple daily intensity index (19%).
• 77% of all detected significant trends indicate a decrease in precipitation across Egypt.
• Most detected trends were classified as likely or extremely likely, with no clear spatial patterns observed.

Conclusions:

• Egypt is experiencing significant changes in rainfall characteristics, predominantly a decrease in precipitation.
• These findings suggest a high probability of climate change impacts on Egypt's hydrological cycle.
• Further investigation is needed to fully understand the implications for water resources and flood risk.