A Time-to-Death Analysis of Older Adults after Emergency Department Intubation

Older adults frequently report a preference to "trial" intubation and mechanical ventilation (MV) if faced with life-threatening respiratory failure. Understanding the anticipated outcome of unplanned MV is key to structuring a time-limited trial of treatment. To characterize the time-to-death (TTD) among adults 65 years of age and older, who undergo emergency intubation and MV. Retrospective cohort study. All patients 65 years of age and older, who underwent emergency department (ED) intubation from 2008 to 2015, from 417 hospitals were included. The primary outcome was TTD after emergency intubation. We identified 41,463 ED encounters. The median TTD was three days (interquartile range, IQR, 1-8). There was a statistically significant change in the median TTD by age decile, with the shortest TTD, two days, in the oldest age group (p < 0.001). TTD was shortest among those with myocardial infarction (one day, IQR 4) and sepsis (two days, IQR 5). Bivariate analysis comparing TTD by Charleston Comorbidity Index (CCI) revealed a trend of increasing TTD with increasing CCI score among decedents. Patients with a CCI of 0 had a median TTD of one day (IQR 4), whereas the median TTD among those with a CCI >4 was four days (IQR 9). In a large, nationally representative cohort of older adults undergoing ED intubation, the median time from intubation to death was short; however, the length of time between intubation and death varied considerably by principal diagnosis. This information will help guide providers' prognostication after emergency intubation and enhance serious illness conversations by informing expectations. Thirty-five percent of older adults die after ED intubation-most only survive two or three days after intubation.