Possibilities as the foundation of reasoning

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Cognitive Science
• Philosophy of Mind

Background:

• Reasoning about possibilities is crucial for daily life but understudied in psychology.
• Existing theories of reasoning often overlook the distinct nature of possibilities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a novel psychological theory where possibilities form the foundation of human reasoning.
• To explain the distinct interpretations (deontic, epistemic, alethic) and representation of possibilities in mental models.

Main Methods:

• Theoretical framework development based on finitary alternatives underlying probabilities.
• Analysis of how speech acts influence obligations and compound assertions.
• Experimental validation of the theory's predictions.

Main Results:

• Possibilities have distinct interpretations and are represented in mental models that yield inferences.
• The theory posits that compound assertions refer to conjunctions of possibilities under default assumptions.
• Mental models condense multiple consistent possibilities into a single representation.

Conclusions:

• The proposed theory offers a new foundation for understanding human reasoning based on possibilities.
• It challenges existing modal and probabilistic logic frameworks.
• Experimental evidence supports the theory's predictive power and potential.