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Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts.

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Improving weather forecasts by increasing model resolution over the West African Sahel enhances the representation of thunderstorms and moisture. This leads to better 5-8-day tropical and mid-latitude weather predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Meteorology
  • Climate Modeling

Background:

  • The West African Sahel experiences the world's most organized thunderstorms, crucial for regional rainfall.
  • Current global weather models use simplified schemes, inaccurately representing Sahelian convection and monsoon circulation.
  • The global impact of misrepresenting Sahelian convection on weather forecasts remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of increased model resolution on representing Sahelian organized convection.
  • To assess the effect of improved convection representation on West African monsoon moisture and global weather forecasts.
  • To demonstrate a computationally feasible strategy for enhancing weather prediction models.

Main Methods:

  • Implementing a computationally feasible increase in model resolution over West Africa.
  • Avoiding convection parameterization schemes in the high-resolution model domain.
  • Analyzing the representation of organized convection and monsoon moisture dynamics.

Main Results:

  • The enhanced resolution model better represents organized convection in the Sahel.
  • Improved representation of moisture within the West African monsoon system was observed.
  • Forecasts for tropical and mid-latitude weather improved significantly at 5-8 day lead times.

Conclusions:

  • Increasing model resolution over West Africa, avoiding convection parameterization, improves the simulation of key weather phenomena.
  • This modeling strategy offers a cost-effective method for enhancing global weather prediction.
  • The approach holds potential for improving sub-seasonal to climate simulations.