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Predicted changes in abortion access and incidence in a post-Roe world
Caitlin Myers1, Rachel Jones1, Ushma Upadhyay1
1Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT; Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY; Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health (ANSIRH), Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, Oakland, CA.
Contraception
|August 4, 2019
Summary
Reversing Roe v. Wade could significantly increase travel distances for abortion care, potentially reducing abortion rates by over 30% and preventing over 100,000 abortions annually.
Area of Science:
- Reproductive Health
- Public Health Policy
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Roe v. Wade has historically protected abortion access.
- Potential reversal or further restrictions on abortion access raise concerns about accessibility.
- Geographic barriers to healthcare can disproportionately affect certain populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of Roe v. Wade reversal on abortion patient travel distances.
- To estimate changes in abortion incidence due to increased travel distances.
- To model the effects of hypothetical abortion bans in multiple US states.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a national database of abortion facilities to calculate travel distances.
- Modeled two scenarios: trigger bans in 8 states and bans in 13 high-risk states.
- Applied Texas-based estimates of travel distance effects on abortion rates.
Main Results:
- A Roe v. Wade reversal could increase travel distances for 39% of women aged 15-44.
- Estimated abortion rates could fall by 32.8% nationally.
- Predicted 93,546-143,561 women unable to access care annually due to travel.
Conclusions:
- Abortion access disparities are likely to increase with Roe v. Wade reversal.
- Reduced abortion rates may lead to increased unwanted births.
- Increased travel distances pose a significant barrier to abortion care.
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