Decision to hospitalize: objective diagnosis-related group criteria versus clinical judgment

Three hundred fifty patients in an observation unit attached to an emergency department received diagnostic workup of nine critical diagnostic syndromes (abdominal pain, flank pain, headache, possible cerebrovascular accident, chest pain, dizziness or syncope, head injury, seizure, multiple trauma). The decision to hospitalize for acute care after observation for 11.1 +/- 3.9 hours was examined. The objective diagnosis-related group (DRG) criteria for admission were compared retrospectively with the physician's clinical judgment of need for hospitalization. Clinical outcome was used to establish the correctness of the decision to hospitalize. Clinical judgment was compared with objective DRG criteria for reliability in predicting the presence of serious pathology necessitating acute care hospitalization; respective values were sensitivity, 100% vs 76%; specificity, 86% vs 80%; positive predictive value, 75% vs 62%; and negative predictive value, 100% vs 89%. The difference between the sensitivity of the two admission criteria was highly significant (P less than 10(-8); chi 2, 26.12). We conclude that the physician's clinical judgment outperforms DRG objective criteria in identifying which patients with critical diagnostic syndromes need acute care hospitalization for emergency medical or surgical therapy.