KLTS: A Rigorous Method to Compute the Confidence Intervals for the Three-Cornered Hat and for Groslambert Covariance

The three-cornered hat/Groslambert Covariance (GCov) methods are widely used to estimate the stability of each individual clock in a set of three, but no method gives reliable confidence intervals for large integration times. We propose a new KLTS (Karhunen-Loève Tansform using Sufficient statistics) method which uses these estimators to consider the statistics of all the measurements between the pairs of clocks in a Bayesian way. The resulting cumulative density function (CDF) yields confidence intervals for each clock Allan variance (AVAR). This CDF provides also a stability estimator that is always positive. Checked by massive Monte Carlo simulations, KLTS proves to be perfectly reliable even for one degree of freedom. An example of experimental measurement is given.