Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Population growth metrics like R0 are often asymmetric functions of temperature.
• Fitness curve skewness (cold vs. warm) is classically interpreted for climate warming impacts.
• Relying solely on fitness curve shape may oversimplify climate change effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species' range size and abundance under climate warming.
• To investigate the synergistic effects of curve skewness, density, and dispersal.
• To challenge the common approach of solely mapping R0 changes.

Main Methods:

• Formulation of a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model.
• Analysis of species' responses based on cold-skewed, warm-skewed, and symmetric fitness curves.
• Inclusion of spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal.

Main Results:

• Climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves.
• Populations with warm-skewed fitness curves show positive responses to climate warming.
• Symmetric curves exhibit limited or mixed effects, highlighting synergistic interactions.

Conclusions:

• Fitness curve skewness, density, and dispersal synergistically influence climate change impacts.
• Classic interpretations of cold-skewness as beneficial under warming are challenged.
• Relying solely on R0 changes for climate change impact assessment can be misleading.