Forecasting global road traffic injury mortality for 2030

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Forecasting

Background:

• Road traffic injuries (RTI) remain a significant global health concern.
• Accurate forecasting of RTI mortality is crucial for effective public health interventions and policy-making.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast the global number and rate of deaths from road traffic injuries (RTI) by the year 2030.
• To develop and validate robust forecasting models for RTI mortality across various demographic and transport subgroups.

Main Methods:

• Secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study data (1990-2017).
• Development of numerous forecasting models incorporating predictors like year, GDP per capita, and education.
• Utilized a rolling window out-of-sample forecast validation to select optimal models for each subgroup.

Main Results:

• The developed models projected 1.225 million global deaths from RTI in 2030, with a mortality rate of 14.3 per 100,000 population.
• These projections represent a 1% decrease in deaths and a 12% decrease in mortality rate compared to 2017 estimates.
• Model validation showed a collective overestimation of deaths by 5.1% compared to GBD Study estimates during test periods.

Conclusions:

• The projected decline in RTI deaths underscores the importance of ongoing global road safety initiatives.
• Accelerated efforts are necessary to achieve the Decade of Action for Road Safety goals and Sustainable Development Goals targets.