A Systems Approach To Assess Trade Dependencies in U.S. Food-Energy-Water Nexus.

Area of Science:

• Systems analysis
• Food-energy-water (FEW) nexus
• Network modeling

Background:

• Interstate food transfers in the U.S. create complex trade dependencies.
• These dependencies have significant embodied irrigation impacts, particularly concerning water resources.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze U.S. interstate food trade dependencies using a network model.
• To assess the associated irrigation impacts from a food-energy-water nexus perspective.
• To identify potential trade shifts to mitigate water scarcity risks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized systems analysis methods, including pointwise mutual information (PMI).
• Developed a network model of U.S. interstate food transfers.
• Analyzed trade probabilities and interdependencies between states.

Main Results:

• Identified strong trade dependencies for Texas, including with high-volume and lower-volume states like New Mexico.
• Found that geographical proximity and shared water resources (High Plains aquifer) create interdependencies and water scarcity risks.
• PMI analysis revealed potential for trade shifts to avoid groundwater depletion, but highlighted tradeoffs with fossil fuel use for irrigation.

Conclusions:

• Network analysis of food transfers reveals critical interdependencies and water resource risks.
• Understanding these FEW nexus dynamics is crucial for sustainable food supply chains.
• Trade adjustments can mitigate water scarcity, but require careful consideration of energy use for irrigation.