Exploring regional air quality evolution by developing a driving force model: Case study of Beijing

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Atmospheric Chemistry

Background:

• Rapid economic and societal development in China has led to emerging ecological and environmental issues, notably air pollution.
• Despite collaborative efforts in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei since 2013, Beijing's air quality remains a significant concern.
• Addressing urban air pollution requires a deeper understanding of its multifaceted drivers.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a quantitative evaluation method for assessing urban air quality and its influencing factors.
• To establish a driving force model integrating social, economic, meteorological, and regional variables.
• To project future air quality trends in Beijing and inform policy development.

Main Methods:

• A quantitative evaluation and analysis method was established.
• A driving force model was developed, combining multiple regression and principal component analysis.
• The model incorporated social, economic, meteorological, and regional factors to assess urban air quality.

Main Results:

• Regional transmission, energy consumption, and industrial structure were identified as the most significant factors influencing Beijing's air quality.
• The developed model successfully assessed current air quality and projected future trends.
• The study provides a theoretical basis for targeted air quality improvement policies.

Conclusions:

• Air pollution in Beijing is significantly influenced by regional transport, energy use, and industrial composition.
• The driving force model offers a robust framework for analyzing and predicting urban air quality.
• Effective policies for improving Beijing's air quality must address these key contributing factors.