AGMA Score: A Novel Prognostic Score for Patients Undergoing Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis represents one of the leading indications for liver transplant. In an effort to expand the listing criteria, a variety of scoring systems have been suggested, mainly based on the tumor number/size criterion. The objective of our study was to evaluate the feasibility of proposing a transplant score for HCC excluding the tumor number/size criterion.

Data corresponding to patients who received transplants because of HCC were reviewed for the purposes of this study. Deceased donor and living donor liver transplants were included. Demographic, clinical and tumor-related parameters were evaluated. Uni- and multivariate regression analyses and survival analysis were performed.

One hundred patients were included in the study. Fifty-five patients underwent deceased donor liver transplant, and 45 patients received living donor liver transplants. Tumor differentiation (G1/2 vs G3), alpha-fetoprotein levels (AFP), recipient age, and recipient laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score (MELD) showed statistical significance. A scoring system was developed, with prognostic points assigned as follows: age 60 years or younger:age older than 60 years = 1:0 points, tumor grading well or moderate:tumor grading poor = 1:0 points, MELD score ≤22:MELD score >22 = 1:0 points, and AFP level ≤400 ng/mL:AFP level >400 ng/mL = 1:0 points. This stratification delineated 3 separate population samples corresponding to patients with scores of 4, 3, and 1 to 2, respectively. The calculated 5-year survival for scores 4, 3, and 1 to 2 was 76%, 47%, and 20%, respectively (P < .001).

The AGMA score (age, grading, MELD, AFP) showed prognostic value in this single-center analysis and may find clinical implication avoiding the tumor number/size criterion.