Comparison between logistic regression and machine learning algorithms on survival prediction of traumatic brain...

To compare twenty-two machine learning (ML) models against logistic regression on survival prediction in severe traumatic brain injury (STBI) patients in a single center study.

Data was collected from STBI patients admitted to the Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital between December 2009 and November 2011. Twenty-two machine learning (ML) models were tested, and their predictive performance compared with logistic regression (LR) model. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC), area under curve (AUC), accuracy, F-score, precision, recall and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) were used as performance metrics.

A total of 117 patients were enrolled. AUC of all ML models ranged from 86.3% to 94%. AUC of LR was 83%, and accuracy was 88%. The AUC of Cubic SVM, Quadratic SVM and Linear SVM were higher than that of LR. The precision ratio of LR was 95% and recall ratio was 91%, both were lower than most ML models. The F-Score of LR was 0.93, which was only slightly better than that of Linear Discriminant and Quadratic Discriminant.

The twenty-two ML models selected have capabilities comparable to classical LR model for outcome prediction in STBI patients. Of these, Cubic SVM, Quadratic SVM, Linear SVM performed significantly better than LR.