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Where winter rules: Modeling wild boar distribution in its north-eastern range.

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Wild boars are expanding into Northern Asia due to climate change, not habitat shifts. Temperature increases at high latitudes are key drivers for this species

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and environmental science
  • Zoology
  • Biodiversity research

Background:

  • Wild boars (Sus scrofa) have a near-global distribution but recently expanded into Northern Asia.
  • Understanding range expansion mechanisms is vital for predicting biodiversity changes.
  • The species' northeastern range expansion into the taiga is a recent phenomenon.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the environmental factors driving wild boar distribution in its northeastern range.
  • To compare the roles of habitat and climate variables at different spatial scales.
  • To predict future wild boar range expansion.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of wild boar distribution across permanently occupied, potential expansion, and total areas.
  • Comparison of habitat and climate variables influencing occupancy.
  • Assessment of environmental factors at three distinct spatial scales.

Main Results:

  • Habitat variable importance decreased along the wild boar occupancy gradient.
  • Climatic variable importance increased along the wild boar occupancy gradient.
  • Potential range increase is attributed to combined habitat and climatic effects.

Conclusions:

  • Future wild boar expansion is more strongly linked to climate change, specifically rising temperatures in high latitudes.
  • Habitat alteration or resource use shifts are less significant factors for future expansion.
  • The findings highlight the critical role of climate in shaping species distribution patterns.