A Critical Appraisal of the July Effect: Evaluating Complications Following Pancreaticoduodenectomy

Reports of higher rates of medical errors in the month of July have generated concern regarding major surgery at academic institutions early in the yearly promotion cycle. This study was designed to evaluate perioperative outcomes in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) at different times of the year.

Outcomes were retrospectively evaluated for patients treated in July versus the rest of the year and in the first quarter (July-September) versus the remaining quarters. The primary outcome was operative morbidity as measured by Clavien-Dindo grade, a classification system of surgical complications. Secondary outcomes included mortality, operative blood loss, pancreatic fistula formation, delayed gastric emptying, intraabdominal abscess, anastomotic leak, reoperation, and other variables of interest.

From January 2003 to September 2015, 472 patients underwent PD by a single academic surgeon. Overall, 77.1% of PDs were performed for malignancy. The number of patients did not significantly vary by month or by quarter. The incidence of major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III) in patients who had a PD was 12.2% in July and 17.5% in all other months (P = 0.79). The rate of pancreatic fistula, intraabdominal abscess, reoperation, readmission, and mortality did not differ significantly by month or by quarter (P > 0.05 for all).

The current study does not find any correlation between time of year and operative morbidity or mortality, suggesting that PD can be safely performed irrespective of timing.