Impact of urbanisation (trends) on runoff behaviour of Pampulha watersheds (Brazil)

The paper presents an analysis of runoff behaviour of four urban catchments between the municipalities of Belo Horizonte and Contagem in Brazil, linked to their land use. Two years of online measurement of flow data, combined with spatial analysis, was linked through runoff modelisation with EPA SWMM. The coefficients of Nash obtained varying between 0.75 and 0.87 demonstrated an adequate modelling approach. A 1-year rain series was applied to evaluate the runoff behaviour of actual land cover and that of 2002. The peak flows normalised to watershed surfaces revealed as the most urbanised (85%) watershed Ressaca with 178 L/ha/s, three times more runoff intensive than the least urbanised (41%) Mergulhão with 67 L/ha/s. Statistical analysis of land cover data and modelling results on watershed and sub-watershed level showed main correlations between hydrological parameters such as peak flow, average event flow and restitution time, but also between land cover and runoff coefficient. This approach gave a linear relation between runoff and green surface, with a runoff coefficient of 0.86 for fully urbanised zone and 0.43 for full "green" cover. Prospective simulation with actual urbanisation rates varying from 4 to 34 ha/year suggested an increase between 6 and 18% of the flows and a possible end of urbanisation within the next two to three decades. These findings should contribute to a better understanding of hydrological impact of Belo Horizonte urbanisation and to the restauration of its Lake Pampulha.