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Understanding market functionality and trading success.

James Schmitz¹, David Rothschild²

¹Tisch School of Arts/ITP, New York University, New York City, NY, United States of America.

|August 22, 2019

Summary

Understanding trading mechanics is key to financial success on prediction markets. This study reveals that market knowledge, not just confidence or information, drives profitable trading strategies for retail investors.

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Area of Science:

Behavioral Economics
Financial Markets Analysis
Political Science

Background:

PredictIt offers futures contracts on political events, attracting retail investors.
Market restrictions limit potential returns, ensuring a retail-only trader base.
Individual-level trading data provides a unique opportunity to study trader behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

To identify trading strategies correlating with financial success on PredictIt.
To analyze trader behavior within and between political prediction markets.
To inform recommendations for simplifying exchange markets for retail investors.

Main Methods:

Analysis of individual-level trading data from the 2016 Democratic and Republican Iowa Caucuses markets on PredictIt.
Reconstruction of complete market activity and trader behavior.
Comparison of trading strategy success against proxies for confidence, funding, information, and objectivity.

Main Results:

Understanding market and trade mechanics is more crucial for financial success than confidence, funding, information, or objectivity.
Differential trading efficiency significantly impacts profitability.
Retail investors' success is tied to their grasp of market dynamics.

Conclusions:

Market and trading efficiency are paramount for retail investor success.
Simplifying prediction market structures could benefit retail traders.
Further research is needed on the impact of trading efficiency across financial markets.