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Predictive and Prognostic Value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose Uptake Combined with Thymidylate Synthase Expression in
Seung Hwan Moon1, Jong-Mu Sun2, Jin Seok Ahn2
1Department of Nuclear Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Abstract:
We investigated the relationship between tumor 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake on positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scans and thymidylate synthase (TS) expression. In addition, we evaluated the value of FDG uptake in predicting treatment response and prognosis when combined with TS expression in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We measured the maximum standard uptake value, metabolic tumor volume, and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of tumor lesions on pretreatment scan in 234 patients (age: 60.1 ± 9.4 years; males: 56.4%) with stage IV non-squamous NSCLC who were enrolled in the prospective phase II clinical trial. We investigated the correlation of the parameters with TS expression and the predictive values of the parameters compared with other clinical factors. Among these parameters, TLG was the most relevant parameter that had a significant correlation with TS expression (ρ = 0.192, P = 0.008). A multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model revealed that high TLG was a significant independent predictor for treatment response (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.05; P = 0.027), progression-free survival (HR: 1.39; P = 0.043), and overall survival (HR: 1.65; P = 0.035) with other factors. In patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC, tumor TLG on pretreatment PET/CT scan has predictive and prognostic value.
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However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.