Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission

The revised Atlanta classification is widely used for the evaluation of acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. However, this classification cannot be used within 48 hours of AP onset. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of mortality in patients with AP on admission.

We evaluated the association between AP mortality and clinical parameters at the time of admission in patients with AP from April 2013 to December 2017 at one university hospital and one tertiary care referral center.

A total of 203 consecutive patients were enrolled. Nine patients (4.4%) died despite multidisciplinary treatment. In a multivariable analysis, hematocrit ≥ 40% (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.13; P = 0.021), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) ≥ 40 mg/dL (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11-1.42; P < 0.001), base excess < -3.0 mmol/L (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26; P = 0.004), and inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.10-1.30; P < 0.001) on admission were significantly associated with mortality.

Among the imaging findings, inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation was the only independent predictive factor for mortality in AP. This simple finding, obtained on computed tomography without contrast agent on admission, might be a promising prognostic factor for AP.