Using Machine Learning on Home Health Care Assessments to Predict Fall Risk

Falls are the leading cause of injuries among older adults, particularly in the more vulnerable home health care (HHC) population. Existing standardized fall risk assessments often require supplemental data collection and tend to have low specificity. We applied a random forest algorithm on readily available HHC data from the mandated Outcomes and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) with over 100 items from 59,006 HHC patients to identify factors that predict and quantify fall risks. Our ultimate goal is to build clinical decision support for fall prevention. Our model achieves higher precision and balanced accuracy than the commonly used multifactorial Missouri Alliance for Home Care fall risk assessment. This is the first known attempt to determine fall risk factors from the extensive OASIS data from a large sample. Our quantitative prediction of fall risks can aid clinical discussions of risk factors and prevention strategies for lowering fall incidence.