Analyzing the effects of various forest management strategies and carbon prices on carbon dynamics in western Turkey

Determining appropriate management strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions using optimization techniques to understand how forest management activities affect the carbon dynamics is critical in implementing effective carbon management policies. This paper quantitatively analyzes the long-term effects of different management policies and silvicultural interventions using linear programming. In the analyses, afforestation targets for bare forest lands, tree species, carbon prices, planning approaches and sets of various targets and constraints on carbon dynamics were evaluated. The results were based on twenty-five forest management scenarios formulated for the Korucu Forest Planning Unit of Turkey. The results showed that, compared to timber-based planning strategies (TM), ecosystem-based planning approach (EM) contributes to a significant reduction in carbon sequestration in many cases. When different afforestation targets were incorporated into forest management strategies, cumulative carbon sequestration increased constantly compared to baseline scenario without any afforestation areas. In addition, the highest total carbon sequestration was observed when black pine (P. nigra) was used in afforestation activities rather than oak species (Quercus sp.) and other available tree species. While total timber production and timber net present value (NPV) decreased, carbon sequestration increased significantly with increasing carbon price. As a result of increasing carbon price from $20/ton to $100/ton, joint NPV increased by about five times. The results highlighted the importance of forest ecosystem and developing and implementing climate adaption measures into forest management activities in tackling climate change phenomenon.