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Updated: Jan 20, 2026
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Climate Change: Ice Melt, Greenhouse Gas, and Species Range Activities - Concept
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Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
Günter Blöschl1, Julia Hall2, Alberto Viglione2,3
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria. bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at.
Nature
|August 30, 2019
Summary
Climate change is altering European river floods, with some regions experiencing increases and others decreases. These observed changes align with climate model projections, highlighting the need for updated flood risk management strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Climate change raises concerns about intensifying river floods due to increased atmospheric water vapor.
- Economic losses from flooding are rising globally, particularly in Europe, necessitating updated flood management and zoning.
- Previous studies lacked continental-scale climate change signals in European flood data due to limited data.
Observation:
- Utilized the most comprehensive European flooding database to date.
- Analyzed river flood discharge over the past five decades across Europe.
- Identified clear regional patterns of both increasing and decreasing flood discharges.
Findings:
- Northwestern Europe shows increasing floods linked to higher autumn/winter rainfall.
- Southern Europe exhibits decreasing floods in larger catchments due to reduced precipitation and increased evaporation.
- Eastern Europe experiences decreasing floods attributed to reduced snow cover and snowmelt from warmer temperatures.
Implications:
- Observed flood trends range from an 11% increase to a 23% decrease per decade.
- These findings align with climate model projections for the next century.
- Climate-driven flood changes necessitate the integration of climate change considerations into flood risk management.
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