What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We used prevalence data which spans the years 2003-2007 to estimate prevalence until 2030 by means of four forecasting methods. Prevalence rates are estimated to be 4-6-times higher in 2030 when compared with 2003 with an average annual percent change of 5%. IBD is poised to have a substantial impact on healthcare systems in the near future, given its rapidly increasing prevalence. Forecasting methods will allow for a proactive stance on the development of health policies that will be needed to provide high quality and cost-effective care to these patients, while ensuring the economic viability of healthcare systems.