Conditional Survival in Patients with Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated with Nivolumab

BACKGROUND Nivolumab is approved for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). However, traditional overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) do not reflect patient prognosis after initial management. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate conditional overall survival (COS) and conditional progression-free survival (CPFS) in patients with advanced RCC treated with nivolumab. MATERIAL AND METHODS There were 847 patients with advanced RCC treated with first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab (n=425) and sunitinib (n=422), and 821 patients were treated with second-line nivolumab (n=410) and everolimus (n=411). Primary endpoints were COS and CPFS. Individual patient data of PFS and OS were digitally reconstructed from two large randomized controlled trials (CheckMate 025 and CheckMate 214). RESULTS In first-line treatment, compared with sunitinib, improvement of one-year CPFS for the nivolumab plus ipilimumab group after living for 0.5 and 0.75 years were 14% (from 53.0% to 67.0%) and 16% (from 57.0% to 73.0%) higher than the one-year PFS of 6.5% (from 42.9% to 49.4%), with similar results for one-year COS following first-line treatment. For second-line treatment, compared with everolimus, the improvement of one-year CPFS for the nivolumab group after living for 0.5 and 0.75 years were 19% (from 25.0% to 44.0%) and 19% (from 27.0% to 46.0%) and significantly higher than the one-year PFS of 4.5% (from 18.5% to 23.0%). CONCLUSIONS Survival benefit for patients with advanced RCC from nivolumab (plus ipilimumab) compared with sunitinib was more evident from conditional survival (CS) analysis of first-line treatment.