Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Cox Maze IV Performed Without Pre-exclusion

New guidelines from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons recommend adding surgical ablation as a concomitant procedure for class I indications. We performed the maze procedure for all patients who experienced atrial fibrillation (AF) before cardiac surgery, without surgeon pre-exclusion.

We retrospectively analyzed 83 patients, aged 71 ± 11 years (22% >80 years), who underwent Cox maze IV for persistent AF between 2014 and 2017. The mean AF duration (AFD) was 6.9 ± 8.6 years and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II was 7.2 ± 6.8.

The 30-day mortality was 2.4%. During follow-up (mean, 675 days), the 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates were 92%, 86%, and 82%, respectively. No strokes were observed despite a mean CHA₂DS₂-VAS_C (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age [≥65 = 1 point, ≥75 = 2 points], Diabetes, and Stroke/transient ischemic attack [2 points], vascular disease, Sex [female = 1 point]) score of 4.1 (expected stroke rate, 4%/y). Twelve patients required a new pacemaker; 56 of 73 survivors (77%) remained AF free. Multivariate logistic regression identified preoperative AFD, f wave size, and mean heart rate per Holter as important risk factors for AF recurrence, with AFD as the most important: 98% of patients with AFD less than 5 years remained AF free. Although the AF-free rate with the AFD of 5 or more years was only 55%, their symptoms improved without heart failure readmission. Concomitant atrial plication was performed more frequently in the group with AFD for 5 or more years, with greater atrial volume reduction and appreciable increases in stroke volume.

The Cox maze IV procedure performed without pre-exclusion showed reasonable survival rates. Although AF recurred in patients with longer AFD, they fared well with substantial increases in stroke volume. Concomitant atrial volume reduction may have contributed to these additional benefits.