Modeling of time-dependent safety performance using anonymized and aggregated smartphone-based dangerous driving...

Safety performance functions (SPFs) are generally used to relate exposure to the expected number of crashes aggregated over a long time (e.g. a year) by holding all other risk factors constant, and to identify hotspots that have excessive crashes regardless of different time periods. However, it is highly likely that the relationships of exposure, risk factors and crash occurrence can vary across different times of day. This study aims to establish time-dependent SPFs for urban roads by using large-scale dangerous driving event data captured by smartphones in different times of day. Multivariate conditional autoregressive (MVCAR) models are developed to jointly account for spatial and temporal dependence of crash observations. Results of two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests affirm the heterogeneity of the safety effects of dangerous driving events in different time periods. Time-dependent hotspots are identified using potential for safety improvement (PSI) metric. The assumption here is that due to the change of traffic conditions and environment across different times of day, safety hotspots for different time periods should be different from each other. According to the results of Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, hotspots identified by times of day are found to be mostly different from each other. The findings of this study provide insights into temporal effects of risk factors and can support the development of time-dependent safety countermeasures. Besides, this study also shows the potential of leveraging anonymized and aggregated dangerous driving data to assess traffic safety issues.