Ecological environment assessment based on land use simulation: A case study in the Heihe River Basin

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecology
• Remote Sensing

Background:

• Effective ecological environment assessment is crucial for regional problem-solving and sustainable socio-economic-ecological development.
• The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is a critical area for studying ecological dynamics and human-environment interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively evaluate the ecological environment of the HRB from 2010 to 2030.
• To predict future ecological changes and identify vulnerable areas within the basin.
• To provide a scientific basis for watershed ecological management and protection planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the dynamics of land system (DLS) model.
• Integrated biological abundance index (BAI), vegetation coverage index (VCI), water density index (WDI), and land degradation index (LDI).
• Calculated the eco-environment quality index (EQI) for comprehensive assessment.

Main Results:

• Projected high BAI and VCI in the south and east, low in the north and west.
• Identified significant declines in BAI in midstream (10.30%) and downstream (18.59%) regions.
• Predicted scattered water areas but higher WDI in the midstream by 2030.
• Located high EQI in the northeast and south, with fragile zones in the midstream and downstream (Jiayuguan City, Jinta County).
• Anticipated EQI drops of 44.28% and 11.40% without intervention.
• Highlighted recovery potential in Qilian Mountain and surrounding counties under policy influence.

Conclusions:

• Future ecological conditions in the HRB, particularly in the midstream and downstream, face significant challenges.
• Targeted ecological policies are essential to mitigate degradation and enhance recovery in vulnerable areas.
• The study provides critical data for informed watershed management and conservation strategies.