A Mathematical Model of Campylobacter Dynamics Within a Broiler Flock

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Microbiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Food Safety Science

Background:

• Campylobacter is a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis globally, primarily transmitted via poultry.
• Understanding Campylobacter transmission dynamics within flocks is crucial for effective biosecurity measures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop the first mathematical model of Campylobacter population dynamics in broiler chickens.
• To investigate the influence of housing density and stochastic variation on Campylobacter infection.

Main Methods:

• A system of stochastic differential equations was employed to model Campylobacter transmission routes between co-housed broiler chickens.
• Global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key factors influencing disease dynamics.

Main Results:

• A strong correlation was observed between housing density and Campylobacter prevalence in broiler flocks.
• Stochastic variation was identified as the primary driver for the emergence of specific Campylobacter strains.
• The model demonstrated rapid selection for phenotypically advantageous Campylobacter strains, leading to the elimination of weaker ones.

Conclusions:

• Housing density significantly affects Campylobacter prevalence in broiler chickens.
• Stochasticity plays a critical role in Campylobacter strain emergence within flocks.
• The growth and death rates of native gut bacteria show potential for novel disease control strategies against Campylobacter.