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Updated: Jan 19, 2026
Climate Change: Ice Melt, Greenhouse Gas, and Species Range Activities - Concept
A round Earth for climate models
Michael J Prather1, Juno C Hsu2
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100 mprather@uci.edu.
Abstract:
Sunlight drives the Earth's weather, climate, chemistry, and biosphere. Recent efforts to improve solar heating codes in climate models focused on more accurate treatment of the absorption spectrum or fractional clouds. A mostly forgotten assumption in climate models is that of a flat Earth atmosphere. Spherical atmospheres intercept 2.5 W⋅m-2 more sunlight and heat the climate by an additional 1.5 W⋅m-2 globally. Such a systematic shift, being comparable to the radiative forcing change from preindustrial to present, is likely to produce a discernible climate shift that would alter a model's skill in simulating current climate. Regional heating errors, particularly at high latitudes, are several times larger. Unlike flat atmospheres, constituents in a spherical atmosphere, such as clouds and aerosols, alter the total amount of energy received by the Earth. To calculate the net cooling of aerosols in a spherical framework, one must count the increases in both incident and reflected sunlight, thus reducing the aerosol effect by 10 to 14% relative to using just the increase in reflected. Simple fixes to the current flat Earth climate models can correct much of this oversight, although some inconsistencies will remain.
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ExpandNOTE: This activity is a simulation of land- and sea-ice melting and their effects on water levels.
First, label one graduated cylinder as 'Sea Ice' and the other graduated cylinder as 'Land Ice.' Hypotheses: the experimental hypothesis might be that the land ice melting will cause the water level to rise more than the melting sea ice. The null hypothesis would be that there will be no difference in the change in water level between the two containers.
Add 10 ice...
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